Wednesday, September 29 2010

New Statewide Polling results available in US Senate Race

Senate Race
Please click here to download the full report
Historic race proves difficult for Tea Party Candidate Joe Miller. One week after Lisa Murkowski’s announcement to run as a write-in candidate, she pulls ahead in the race for US Senate.  The GOP Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, is trying to keep her seat in the Senate with a write-in campaign, she leads the field with 41% of voters choosing her over Republican nominee Joe Miller, 30%, and Democrat Scott McAdams at 19%.

Senator Murkowski’s lead is largely due to her broad based support among Republican, Democrats and Independents.  30% of registered Democrats are supporting Murkowski’s bid for re-election. 

In Alaska, 53% of voters are not registered with any party or are independent.  In order to win a statewide race you need to attract independent voters and according to these results Senator Murkowski is doing just that – 45% of independent voters are supporting Murkowski to Miller’s 24%.

Joe Miller does well among conservative voters, claiming 57% of all Republican voters to Murkowski’s 35%.  Yet Miller will need more than just conservative voters to win this election.

The momentum McAdams gained after Republican Joe Miller won the primary appears to be shifting in Murkowski’s direction.  Murkowski’s retained position on the Senate Energy and Resources Committee and McAdams inexperience are no doubt pushing Democrats across party lines.

McAdams primary base of support is from registered Democrats, 50%, and Alaskans who consider themselves very and somewhat liberal, but there are not enough of these voters to get a win in Alaska.

While Senator Murkowski is ahead in the polls, she still needs to get people to actually fill in the oval and write-in her name.  A challenging task, but according to Alaska election law, “intention of the voter” is paramount and it provides a lot of room for interpretation. Even if her name is spelled wrong it will still count.

Most Alaskans view themselves as moderate or middle of the road. This election will be won by the candidate who owns this independent majority.

For more details please call Jean Craciun 907.279.3901.